by Dilip Shaw
Date: April 6, 2020
Date of post: 06-Apr-20
Since last few days, India VIX is dropping. See this image:
India VIX 03-Apr-20
From a high of 86.63 to 55.30 in less than 30 days.
What does it mean?
It means that traders are assuming that the worst has happened and some kind of normalcy may resume in a few days so fear factor is decreasing.
Does this guarantee that normal trading will resume soon and that Nifty will now start to go up?
Well, nothing is guaranteed in stock markets else everyone would put 100% of what they earn in stock markets. But this gives some indication that in the near future (30 to 60 days) normalcy will resume. read more
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by Dilip Shaw
Date: March 23, 2020
Date of article: 23-Mar-2020
Let me first show you last 6 months graph of NSE:
Source: https://money.rediff.com/index.html
On 14-Jan-20, NSE closed at 12362.30, and on 23-Mar-2020 at 12.30 pm it was trading at 7713.80. During this period it has hit two lower circuits. So basically in just last 70 days it has gown down by -37.60%. That is almost 40% of wealth eroded from stock markets in just 70 days.
Where has this money gone? Back to investors bank account. Next time when you hear from media that thousands of crores of investors wealth is lost then do not think that everyone lost money. Fact is even during normal times someone makes and someone loses. Here the story is slightly different. read more
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by Dilip Shaw
Date: February 28, 2020
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by Dilip Shaw
Date: February 27, 2020
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by Dilip Shaw
Date: February 26, 2020
This is copy of email sent to my newsletter subscribers on Feb 26, 2020:
There are many reasons why nifty has become so volatile now-a-days:
1. Too much confusion on CoronaVirus – lots of myth that China is hiding total death count is believed by many people.
2. US-India trade – United States did not announce a trade deal during US President Trump India visit in Feb 2020, not even a mini-deal. Basically, Trump came to just see India – kind of travel with family nothing else.
3. Indian Economics, especially the mid and small scale industries are in tatters and hope is very far. I do not see Nifty crossing 12500 soon. On 26-Feb-2020 Nifty closed at near 11,678. read more
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by Dilip Shaw
Date: January 17, 2020
Union Budget 2020 will be presented in the Parliament on February 1, 2020, at 11 am. Till then there will be huge volatility in India markets.
Here are some pointers that can help you make a decision to trade:
1. INDIA VIX will keep increasing
https://www.moneycontrol.com/indian-indices/india-vix-36.html
Currently, INDIA VIX on Jan 17, 2020, is at 11:14 am is at 14.28, up by 0.10 points or 0.71% from the previous close.
It will keep increasing until February 1, 2020. After that it will start to drop. It will take about 10 days for India VIX to be back to normal. Which means by 10-Feb-20 it will be back to normal. read more
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by Dilip Shaw
Date: January 10, 2020
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by Dilip Shaw
Date: December 9, 2019
For option traders, India VIX is a very important factor that helps to make a decision. It’s a Volatility Index based on the index option prices of NIFTY F&O segment only not any other index like BSE or MCX.
India VIX is a volatility index based on the index option prices of NIFTY. India VIX is computed using the best bid and ask quotes (the difference between quotation of sellers and buyers of options at different strikes) of the out-of-the-money of near and mid-month NIFTY option contracts which are traded on the F&O segment of NSE. India VIX indicates the investor’s perception of the market’s volatility in the near term. The index depicts the expected market volatility over the next 30 calendar days. i.e. higher the India VIX values, higher the expected volatility and vice-versa. read more
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by Dilip Shaw
Date: December 5, 2019
Well, it’s important to study what went wrong with every trade you take. And also what went correct with every trade irrespective of the trade made profit or loss. This will give you an idea of what must be done and what must not be done in the next trade. That way with time you become a better trader.
However if you see closely at least 10% of the trades you take must be ignored. Why? Because they were pure speculative trades. Speculative trades are trades that you took just like that because “you thought so”. read more
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by Dilip Shaw
Date: November 23, 2019
These trades are equity and options intraday trades done by me in my research account and some are given by my clients. You can get started with as little as Rs.10,000/- but later you may need more to get such results. Just to help you get started in stock markets I can give you this strategy for free.
Learning this strategy is important but what is more important is to become a disciplined trader. Probably you will make approx 500 a day, but the rules given in the strategy have to be followed by you, and when you start following it, you will become a disciplined trader. It is very important to be a disciplined trader if you want to succeed in trading equities, options or futures. 99% of traders lose money because they cannot control greed and break the laws of trading. If you can learn to be a disciplined trader I can assure you that you will become a much better trader than what you are today. The strategy is just 10% for the reason of successful traders, discipline takes away 90% of the credit. read more
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