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On Apr 8, 2023, I wrote to my email subscribers that India VIX is falling suggesting an up move. Today (Monday, 10-Apr-2023), see that it is indeed going up:
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Today’s condition is rare – India’s VIX has gone up and Nifty has also gone up. Usually, they do not go in the same direction. If one goes down the other goes up.
India VIX is the fear factor index of the Indian stock markets. When unusual trading increases, India VIX – its just software, thinks that unusual trading means people are fearful – therefore it increases proportionately to the pattern of unusual trading compared to the statistical data it has of many years. And of course, when there is unusual trading it means that people are selling off their assets – whether it is options, futures, commodities or stocks. In this condition what will happen? Stock markets will fall.
When there is a normal pattern of trading, India VIX tends to fall indicating low fear in the market. When the total volume in trading decreases to 10% or less compared to the usual data – India VIX will fall below 10.
See the historical chart of India VIX. The 52-week high is 28.13 and the 52-week low is 10.17. This 52-week means data is from Apr 22 to Mar 23 (FY 22-23). Why it did not go below 10? Ukraine War, Hindenburg Research on Adani, and many other reasons.
India VIX is a very important indicator of overall market direction – not of an individual stock. For an individual stock news is an indicator.
So next time you want to take a directional trade, especially in Index, make sure to have a look at India VIX.
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