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When VIX Drops Nifty Rises

Part of my newsletter to my subscribers dated 29-Nov-18

I have written this before that Nifty and India VIX are inversely proportional. Today I want to just write again because it has again proved that they both are inversely proportional.

See last 3 months graph of India VIX and Nifty – Source: MoneyControl.com:

India VIX Sep-Nov 18

Nifty Sep-Nov 18

Can you see from Sep to Nov 18 India VIX kept on rising and Nifty in the same period kept on falling?

If you read my emails thank you. Hope you remember what I said on 27-Nov-18 that Nifty at 10600 is looking very strong and at the time of writing this email on 29-Nov-18 Nifty is at 10824.25. read more

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All Options Do Not Expire Worthless

Traders who short options profusely have a misconception that over 80% of options that are traded expire worthless. Let us see option chain for Banknifty expiring on 22-Nov-18.

Option Chain Banknifty 22-Nov-18

Source: https://www.nseindia.com/live_market/dynaContent/live_watch/option_chain/optionKeys.jsp?symbolCode=-9999&symbol=BANKNIFTY&symbol=BANKNIFTY&instrument=OPTIDX&date=-&segmentLink=17&segmentLink=17

Please note that the options colored in yellow are all In The Money (ITM) when this screen-shot was taken at 1.02 pm on 19-Nov-18. read more

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India VIX Not Going Down

Note: This is part of my newsletter sent to my Nifty Course subscribers only. Some part which are part of my strategies may not be posted here.

Date of newsletter: 13-Nov-2018

See India VIX:

India VIX 13-Nov-18

India VIX from some strange reason is not going below 19 even though Nifty to some extend has stabilized since last few days.

I would suggest stick to conservative strategies in my course.

Either Nifty or Bank Nifty conservative strategies.

If you are a stock trader you can try conservative strategies in ITC or HDFC Bank – they are great candidates for both the conservative strategies. The bank nifty conservative in Nifty is a breeze. Easy money πŸ™‚ read more

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20 Years In Stock Market Yet Losses

Before I say anything please see this:

Here is the chat in text:

Trader: Sir today I paid the money for both course. Now advise me how to trade in options with safe guarding capital amount. Genuinely I tell about myself I am in Market since 1997 but single pie I haven’t earned anything. The examples what you are saying in your mail’s all I experienced in my entire 20 years time.

Now with your guidance I may get change my trading pattern. Guide me properly.

Me: I have sent you three emails please check. read more

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Though it looks easy – buy and option/future and sell it at a higher price looks easy – fact is trading is one of the most difficult profession in the world. Actually it is not that difficult – your expectation makes it difficult.

I read quite a lot of newsletters on stock markets – mostly from USA traders. But there too it looks like traders’ mind-set is same as here in India – double money every month or something like that. See this newsletter from a Forex Trading Software provider I got today morning: read more

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How To Trade The Earnings Season

New traders do not know how to trade the earnings season. This post will help you to trade the earnings season. If you do not know when the earning season comes – they fall end of fiscal quarter. This means that earnings seasons fall in January, April, July and October. Corporate earnings are released to the public during earning season – stocks move a lot during this season at least for 5 trading days after the result is out.

If you are a momentum trader you will find earning season to be a great time to enter trades. You can take the benefit of gap up and down in reaction to quarterly earnings reports. Especially the mid caps will give you great opportunity to trade. On top of that finding direction gets easy as well. If the earnings are as per expectation of the market the stock will likely go up, if the earnings are not as per expectation of the market or bad, the stock will go down. You can take trades accordingly. read more

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Volatility is Average But India VIX Still High

Part of my free newsletter dated: 24-Oct-2018

Last few days volatility has become average but India VIX is still high. By the time you check it may have changed but right now at 11.17 am on 24-10-18 it is 18.51 – down -2.78% from yesterdays close.

Below 16 is comfortable zone to trade derivatives. I feel within 10 days it should come down to near 16.

What you can do?

You can chose to trade or not. My principal of trading is very different than what you keep reading in other websites or videos. When in confusion or very volatile times go non-directional or just do not trade. Not forcing yourself to trade should also be mastered. Just trading for the sake of trading is fun not business. And business is not fun – you have to be serious. read more

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Warning Huge Gap Down Opening in Nifty

Note: This is text of my newsletter sent to my email subscribers on 11-Oct-2018 before the stock markets opened.

By the time this email reaches you, you will see that the damage has been done to all Future/Call long traders yesterday. I hope it is not you.

Today Nifty will gap down open by almost 300 points. Just see what the damage a gap up or down can do to a naked option or future trader.

This is the loss of a naked (UN-hedged) future trader in SINGLE LOT ONLY:

300 (points) * 75 (lot size) = Rs.22,500/-. Loss of a greedy trader trading 10 lots = Rs.2,25,000/- gone in a single day. πŸ™ read more

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Post date: 09-Oct-2018

Last one month graph of Nifty:

Sep-Oct 2018 Nifty

Last one month markets have fallen badly. I am sure your investments may have also gone down. Same with me. This is normal. Do not worry. When you own stocks be ready to hold in though times. But when stocks fall its a good news too. Treat this as a discount sale in stock markets.

What you can and should do in falling markets:

1. Look for quality stocks and buy them over a period of one or two months. For example by some on 10th, 20th and last day of the month. That way you will average out. I have yesterday emailed my nifty course subscribers name of some stocks that they can buy and keep for sometime for good returns. read more

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India VIX over 17 What It Means

Post date: 03-Oct-2018

Take a look at India VIX today 03-Oct-2018 at 11.28 am:

India VIX 03-10-18

Update: India VIX date 04-Oct-2018 at 10.15 am:

India VIX 04-Oct-18

Source: http://www.moneycontrol.com/indian-indices/india-vix-36.html – Note India VIX changes as the trading progresses.

Stock markets are inversely proportional to India VIX. Here is the fall on Nifty on 04-Oct-2018 at 10.15 am:

NSE 04-Oct-18

Source https://money.rediff.com/index.html

Update: India VIX date 08-Oct-2018:

India VIX 08-Oct-18

Note see that intraday high was 21.76.

And NSE close on 08-Oct-2018: read more

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