I will update the NIFTY 50 and BANK NIFTY Outlook for June 2025 here. Not all days will be posted, but those days when I feel it is important.

NIFTY-50 OUTLOOK Tuesday, June 17, 2025:

Nifty Resistance: 25041 / 25136
Nifty Support: 24778 / 24609

NIFTY-50 kept the support of 24,500. The previous week’s loss was recovered. Since the weekly expiry is on Thursday, June 19, 2025, there may be some volatility due to the geopolitical situation. More volatility will be there in commodities like Crude Oil due to the ongoing war between Iran and Israel.

The range of Nifty over the next few days could be 24,500-25000 levels.

Nifty Call & Put OI Highest Open Interest for the Weekly Expiry on Thursday, 19-Jun-25:

NIFTY Highest Call OI (Open Interest): It has moved lower to 25,000
NIFTY Highest Put OI (Open Interest): 24,500

What can you do?

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BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK Tuesday, June 17, 2025:

BANK NIFTY Resistance: 56169 / 56394
BANK NIFTY Support: 55551 / 55157

Due to the heavy buying of banking stocks, Bank Nifty opened lower but bounced from the support range of 55,400 and closed near the high point of the day.

If 56,300 is crossed, then Banknifty may cross an all-time high of 57,000 levels over the next few days.

Bank Nifty Call & Put OI Highest Open Interest for the June 2025 Monthly Expiry:

BANK NIFTY Highest Call OI (Open Interest): It has moved higher to 57,000 strikes.
BANK NIFTY Highest Put OI (Open Interest):  It has moved lower to 54,000.

What can you do?

This is available via my newsletters only. If you want to receive my emails, kindly subscribe for a 5-day free course on options using the form at the top of this page.

Stock Activity on Tuesday, June 17, 2025:

Infosys Ltd. and Prestige Estates Projects Limited witnessed a long build-up. They may maintain a positive momentum for the next few days.

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NIFTY-50 OUTLOOK Monday, June 23, 2025:

NSE 23-Jun-25

NIFTY-50 is looking strong. Today’s fall is mainly due to the Israel-Iran war. Within days, Nifty will cross the 25,500 levels. On the downside, the support is at a 20-day moving average of 24,850. Therefore, 24800 / 24750 will act as support.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) of Nifty has crossed above 55 and is now at 59, signalling a bullish momentum. This may trigger further upside, potentially reaching new highs.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is a momentum indicator that measures the magnitude of recent price changes to evaluate overbought or oversold conditions in the price of a stock or other asset. It oscillates between 0 and 100, with values above 70 generally indicating overbought conditions. In overbought conditions, a stock usually falls because it has been bought more than the average for the same period; therefore, a pullback may occur.

Values below 30 indicate an oversold condition. In an oversold condition, a stock usually goes up because its price looks attractive compared to a 30-day moving average of the price of the stock.

The Highest Call Open Interest (OI) is at 25,000 strikes.
The Highest Put Open Interest (OI) is at 24,500 for the weekly expiry.

BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK Monday, JUNE 23, 2025:

The Bank Nifty index has shown a strong momentum with a sharp bounce from the demand zone around the 54,200–54,800 range. 54,500 is a STRONG SUPPORT as of now.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) of Banknifty is currently at 57.77 and turning upward, suggesting increasing bullish momentum without being overbought. Of course, if it crosses 70, then it will reach the overbought zone and may pull back.

The Highest Call Open Interest (OI) is at 57,000.
The Highest Put Open Interest (OI) has moved lower to 57,000 for the monthly expiry.

This post will help a beginner options trader understand how to start trading and manage risk.

Fortunately, most beginners starting to trade options and/or futures do not have much cash in their trading accounts.

How can I say this?

Because when I started, I had little cash. The fact is, when anyone starts to trade, he/she is very young, and it is obvious that most young people do not have much money.

Plus, I keep getting calls from traders all over India, and I know how much most beginners have.

When I started this website in 2014, most beginners had 50k approx in their account – today, in 2015, most beginners have approx 1 lakh. Needless to say, salaries have increased, so the investment has increased.

A small account size is beneficial for beginners because when they are going through a learning phase, they are likely to make more mistakes than an experienced trader. So a small account ensures they do not do much damage to themselves.

Still, beginners need to keep some amount in their trading account so that they can practice with real money.

How much money is a good amount for a beginner?

Unfortunately, due to a recent SEBI circular trying to curb novice retail traders from the derivative markets, approx 1 lakh needs to be kept in their trading account, else they will not be able to experience how shorting options and futures trading work.

With less money, like 10k, only buying options is possible, but buying options is riskier than selling options.

Learn to Control Risk

If you are a beginner option trader, you must learn to control risk. You may have 5 lakh in your trading account that doesn’t mean you should trade with a lot of money.

The first step to controlling risk is to understand position sizing. As a small account holder, trading an appropriate position size is one of the first things you should understand.

Most websites will say do not risk more than 2% per trade, but frankly, this is impossible, as setting up a stop loss of 2% will be highly risky, and most of the time, the stop loss will be hit.

So ideal position sizing is 5%. Which means if the margin used for a trade is 1 lakh, your stop loss should be 5000. This will give you room and time to decide whether to stay in the trade or exit with a small profit.

Then, after one year, check how you fared. If you somehow managed to make even 4-5k, then you can slowly add more money to your account. Do not add more than 10k each quarter (three months). You may be misled into thinking that you made 5% and, therefore, are a good trader.

Sometimes beginner’s luck works in your favour, so it is not recommended to add too much money after a few wins. The psychological aspect of trading a 3 lakh account is much different to a 1 lakh account. If you add slowly, your mind will get some time to absorb the psychological impact of trading a large account.

5% loss in 1 lakh account is 5k but in a 3 lakh account is 15k. Of course, the profits will also increase threefold, but it is easy to see a big profit but hard to bear a big loss. By slowly increasing the amount invested, your subconscious mind will adjust to big profits and losses.

Date of posting: Wednesday, 07-May-2025

On 7 May 2025, India conducted missile strikes on Pakistan codenamed Operation Sindoor, targeting what it called “terrorist infrastructure” in Pakistan and Pakistani-administered Kashmir.
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_India%E2%80%93Pakistan_strikes

This post’s objective is what traders and investors in India should do now after this attack.

Strangely, India VIX has fallen today despite the news that India bombed a few places in Pakistan. This should have increased INDIA VIX.

Still, 18.64 is considered high INDIA VIX.

Pakistan stock exchange is 6% down today, clearly showing the panic among investors. The same may happen in India if they retaliate. If Pakistan retaliates, Sensex/Nifty will fall by at least 5% points.

So what can you do?

If you are a long-term investor, do not exit in panic. Even if your stock goes down, it will recover with time.

If you are a short-term investor and if your stocks are in profit, then exit even if the profit is small. Do not regret later if the stock does not tank. What matters is that you took a profit.

If you are a future/options trader, the rule remains the same. Keep a strict stop loss in the system and always hedge your traders, no matter what is the situation.

If you want to learn options and futures hedging you can do my conservative options course.

Contact me for more details.

Posted on: Sunday, May 04, 2025

Year to date (2025), the Nifty is positive by almost 3%. Though small, this still means a lot, as too much negative news is currently hitting the markets.

However, this may happen over the next few months.

Note: This is my assertion – if you are following, please keep a trailing stop loss or a simple stop loss and target.

Nifty Support & Resistance Levels:

22,000.00 is a major support.

If Nifty breaks 25,000, then it may go up to 26,300 levels, breaking the all-time high.

Once it crosses 26,300, the support will move to 23,800 levels.

Bank Nifty Support & Resistance Levels:

Bank Nifty has outperformed the broader markets, led by the private banks. It is currently near its all-time high.

Bank Nifty key support will be at a 50-week average of 51,500 levels.

Its resistance will be at  57,700 levels.

Things to note:

The volatility will remain high. At the time of writing this post, India VIX is at 18.26 (EOD 2-May-2025) – an increase of +0.035 (0.19%) from the last close.

I expect it to remain high, at least above 15, until the Indo-Pak tension and tariff war prevail.

President Trump can say anything any day; therefore, more than average speculation trades will happen, taking the volatility and INDIA VIX to higher levels.

Keep an eye on the quarterly results. If a company’s performance comes out worse than expected, you can trade my stock futures with a hedge shorting strategy, which is there in my monthly income options course.

And of course, hedge all your options and futures trading; otherwise, you may lose a lot of money.

You can learn options and future hedging strategies in my conservative options hedging monthly income course.

You can see testimonials of my course here – what traders say about this course.

Contact me if interested in doing my course.

Date of posting: Friday, 02-May-2025

The rising India VIX is indicating a fall in the Nifty. However, the tariff news is not coming at least for the next 60 days, so do not worry. Read why the Sensex is rising and is expected to rise.

India VIX 02-May-25

So, there could be other reasons why India VIX is increasing. One of them is the confusion over Traffis, and the other is the tension between India and Pakistan.

Even though India VIX is inversely proportional to Nifty, sometimes the prevailing conditions are such that they both become independent.

What Traders Can Do When India VIX Is On The Rise

The increased VIX will give a benefit to longer-term option buyers as theta decay will be negated by the increasing VIX.

However, if you are an option buyer, it is suggested that you take out the profit between 10% and 20%, and not wait for a lucky draw. Lucky draw is just an imagination which never happens. Traders who wait for that lucky draw usually end up in losses.

Too many small profits are better than one big loss.

Currently, the option sellers will be having issues seeing no theta decay happening.

Option sellers can shift to weekly options, as due to the high INDIA VIX, they will get reasonable option premiums expiring in 5-7 days. Whatever the VIX, since weekly options do not have much time left, they will have a good theta decay speed no matter what happens to the VIX.

Of course, whatever you trade, do not trade without a hedge. One loss can take out years of profits. Hedge not only reduces the margin selling options and buying/selling futures, but also reduces the stress of losing a large capital overnight. Hedge makes sure there is never a huge loss.

You can do my monthly income options course and learn hedging options, futures and stocks.

Contact me if interested in doing the course.

Posted on: Wed – 23-Apr-2025

Global markets surged after Trump ruled out firing Fed Chair Powell and hinted at easing trade tensions with China. After this announcement Wall Street rallied, led by Tesla, Nvidia, and big tech stocks. European and Asian indexes followed suit, while energy prices stabilised. Optimism spread across investors despite lingering economic uncertainties and fading Tesla profits.

Source:

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/stocks/live-blog/bse-sensex-today-live-nifty-stock-market-updates-23-april-2025/liveblog/120534990.cms?

That’s some relief and good news.

Now what will happen?

Humans are strange. Everyone is looking for quick profits, even though they know it is riskier than long-term profits.

That one small news lifted stock markets worldwide, led by the US markets.

What will happen to Indian Markets?

They will rise too. No one can pinpoint the exact rise in percentage terms, but I guess that it can rise by up to 5%.

As of writing this post (EOD Wednesday – 23-Apr-25), Sensex is at 80,116.49 and Nifty is at 24,328.95, so approximately they can go up to 84,125.00 and 25,545.00 respectively.

But please keep in mind that it will not happen in a day or two. One day it will go up, one day down – this is the nature of stock markets. If there is no bad news from Trump, the markets will rise more or less up to what I have written, then some profit booking may come.

You are advised to trade with proper research and caution.

It is advisable to trade with a hedge and always keep a target in the system. ZERODHA is one broker that allows to keep target and stop loss in the system. If the target is hit, the stop loss order will automatically get cancelled. Or you can just keep either a stop loss or a target in the system. This feature is free. Account opening is free. Click here to open an account in ZERODHA.

My Conservative Monthly Income Options Course will help you to make anywhere between 3 to 5% a month. Contact me if you want to do my course.

Article written on Tuesday, 22-April-2025

Highest Call & Put Open Interest for April 2025 Monthly Expiry

NIFTY OUTLOOK

Highest Call Open Interest has moved higher to 24,500 strikes, while on the downside, the highest put is at 23,800 for the monthly expiry.

It may change since the monthly expiry still has a few days left.

Nifty has moved up over the last 8 trading days, and today it is near its 200-day moving average.

Some profit booking cannot be ruled out.

BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK

Bank Nifty scaled a new all-time high, led by HDFC Bank. PSU banks broke out above the 200-day average with a strong gain of 2.5% on average.

The highest Call Open Interest (OI) has moved higher to 55,500 strikes, while the downside, the highest Put Open Interest (OI) has moved higher to 54,000 for the monthly expiry.

Here too, some profit booking cannot be ruled out.

Please keep listening to the news. Markets will move once Trump opens his mouth.

If the news is negative, like an increase in tariffs, then short. If the news is positive, like no increase in tariffs, then go long.

Trade safely and with a hedge.

My Monthly Income Options Course will teach you proper hedging and trading options, futures and stocks. Contact me if you want to do the course.