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India Strikes Pakistan – What Traders Can Do

by Dilip Shaw Date: May 7, 2025

in Newsletters

Date of posting: Wednesday, 07-May-2025

On 7 May 2025, India conducted missile strikes on Pakistan codenamed Operation Sindoor, targeting what it called “terrorist infrastructure” in Pakistan and Pakistani-administered Kashmir.
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_India%E2%80%93Pakistan_strikes

This post’s objective is what traders and investors in India should do now after this attack.

Strangely, India VIX has fallen today despite the news that India bombed a few places in Pakistan. This should have increased INDIA VIX.

Still, 18.64 is considered high INDIA VIX.

Pakistan stock exchange is 6% down today, clearly showing the panic among investors. The same may happen in India if they retaliate. If Pakistan retaliates, Sensex/Nifty will fall by at least 5% points.

So what can you do?

If you are a long-term investor, do not exit in panic. Even if your stock goes down, it will recover with time.

If you are a short-term investor and if your stocks are in profit, then exit even if the profit is small. Do not regret later if the stock does not tank. What matters is that you took a profit.

If you are a future/options trader, the rule remains the same. Keep a strict stop loss in the system and always hedge your traders, no matter what is the situation.

If you want to learn options and futures hedging you can do my conservative options course.

Contact me for more details.

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Nifty May 2025 Future Monthly Report

by Dilip Shaw Date: May 4, 2025

in Newsletters, Stock Markets

Posted on: Sunday, May 04, 2025

Year to date (2025), the Nifty is positive by almost 3%. Though small, this still means a lot, as too much negative news is currently hitting the markets.

However, this may happen over the next few months.

Note: This is my assertion – if you are following, please keep a trailing stop loss or a simple stop loss and target.

Nifty Support & Resistance Levels:

22,000.00 is a major support.

If Nifty breaks 25,000, then it may go up to 26,300 levels, breaking the all-time high.

Once it crosses 26,300, the support will move to 23,800 levels.

Bank Nifty Support & Resistance Levels:

Bank Nifty has outperformed the broader markets, led by the private banks. It is currently near its all-time high.

Bank Nifty key support will be at a 50-week average of 51,500 levels.

Its resistance will be at 57,700 levels.

Things to note:

The volatility will remain high. At the time of writing this post, India VIX is at 18.26 (EOD 2-May-2025) – an increase of +0.035 (0.19%) from the last close.

I expect it to remain high, at least above 15, until the Indo-Pak tension and tariff war prevail.

President Trump can say anything any day; therefore, more than average speculation trades will happen, taking the volatility and INDIA VIX to higher levels.

Keep an eye on the quarterly results. If a company’s performance comes out worse than expected, you can trade my stock futures with a hedge shorting strategy, which is there in my monthly income options course.

And of course, hedge all your options and futures trading; otherwise, you may lose a lot of money.

You can learn options and future hedging strategies in my conservative options hedging monthly income course.

You can see testimonials of my course here – what traders say about this course.

Contact me if interested in doing my course.

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What Traders Can Do When India VIX Is On The Rise

by Dilip Shaw Date: May 2, 2025

in Stock Markets

Date of posting: Friday, 02-May-2025

The rising India VIX is indicating a fall in the Nifty. However, the tariff news is not coming at least for the next 60 days, so do not worry. Read why the Sensex is rising and is expected to rise.

India VIX 02-May-25

So, there could be other reasons why India VIX is increasing. One of them is the confusion over Traffis, and the other is the tension between India and Pakistan.

Even though India VIX is inversely proportional to Nifty, sometimes the prevailing conditions are such that they both become independent.

What Traders Can Do When India VIX Is On The Rise

The increased VIX will give a benefit to longer-term option buyers as theta decay will be negated by the increasing VIX.

However, if you are an option buyer, it is suggested that you take out the profit between 10% and 20%, and not wait for a lucky draw. Lucky draw is just an imagination which never happens. Traders who wait for that lucky draw usually end up in losses.

Too many small profits are better than one big loss.

Currently, the option sellers will be having issues seeing no theta decay happening.

Option sellers can shift to weekly options, as due to the high INDIA VIX, they will get reasonable option premiums expiring in 5-7 days. Whatever the VIX, since weekly options do not have much time left, they will have a good theta decay speed no matter what happens to the VIX.

Of course, whatever you trade, do not trade without a hedge. One loss can take out years of profits. Hedge not only reduces the margin selling options and buying/selling futures, but also reduces the stress of losing a large capital overnight. Hedge makes sure there is never a huge loss.

You can do my monthly income options course and learn hedging options, futures and stocks.

Contact me if interested in doing the course.

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Why Sensex is Rising and Expected to Rise

by Dilip Shaw Date: April 24, 2025

in Newsletters, Stock Markets

Posted on: Wed – 23-Apr-2025

Global markets surged after Trump ruled out firing Fed Chair Powell and hinted at easing trade tensions with China. After this announcement Wall Street rallied, led by Tesla, Nvidia, and big tech stocks. European and Asian indexes followed suit, while energy prices stabilised. Optimism spread across investors despite lingering economic uncertainties and fading Tesla profits.

Source:

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/stocks/live-blog/bse-sensex-today-live-nifty-stock-market-updates-23-april-2025/liveblog/120534990.cms?

That’s some relief and good news.

Now what will happen?

Humans are strange. Everyone is looking for quick profits, even though they know it is riskier than long-term profits.

That one small news lifted stock markets worldwide, led by the US markets.

What will happen to Indian Markets?

They will rise too. No one can pinpoint the exact rise in percentage terms, but I guess that it can rise by up to 5%.

As of writing this post (EOD Wednesday – 23-Apr-25), Sensex is at 80,116.49 and Nifty is at 24,328.95, so approximately they can go up to 84,125.00 and 25,545.00 respectively.

But please keep in mind that it will not happen in a day or two. One day it will go up, one day down – this is the nature of stock markets. If there is no bad news from Trump, the markets will rise more or less up to what I have written, then some profit booking may come.

You are advised to trade with proper research and caution.

It is advisable to trade with a hedge and always keep a target in the system. ZERODHA is one broker that allows to keep target and stop loss in the system. If the target is hit, the stop loss order will automatically get cancelled. Or you can just keep either a stop loss or a target in the system. This feature is free. Account opening is free. Click here to open an account in ZERODHA.

My Conservative Monthly Income Options Course will help you to make anywhere between 3 to 5% a month. Contact me if you want to do my course.

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Highest Call & Put Open Interest for April 2025 Monthly Expiry

by Dilip Shaw Date: April 22, 2025

in Newsletters

Article written on Tuesday, 22-April-2025

Highest Call & Put Open Interest for April 2025 Monthly Expiry

NIFTY OUTLOOK

Highest Call Open Interest has moved higher to 24,500 strikes, while on the downside, the highest put is at 23,800 for the monthly expiry.

It may change since the monthly expiry still has a few days left.

Nifty has moved up over the last 8 trading days, and today it is near its 200-day moving average.

Some profit booking cannot be ruled out.

BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK

Bank Nifty scaled a new all-time high, led by HDFC Bank. PSU banks broke out above the 200-day average with a strong gain of 2.5% on average.

The highest Call Open Interest (OI) has moved higher to 55,500 strikes, while the downside, the highest Put Open Interest (OI) has moved higher to 54,000 for the monthly expiry.

Here too, some profit booking cannot be ruled out.

Please keep listening to the news. Markets will move once Trump opens his mouth.

If the news is negative, like an increase in tariffs, then short. If the news is positive, like no increase in tariffs, then go long.

Trade safely and with a hedge.

My Monthly Income Options Course will teach you proper hedging and trading options, futures and stocks. Contact me if you want to do the course.

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Total Confusion In The Stock Markets What To Do

by Dilip Shaw Date: April 7, 2025

in Newsletters, Stock Markets

Date of post: Monday – 07-Apr-2025.

Donald Trump’s tariff plans and his actions have confused investors. Everyone is panicking and taking out money from stock markets.

This is what happened today:

What can you do?

Do not panic – making decisions based on a confused mind will only lead to losses. Wait for 2 days and see if you have taken a decision that needs a review. If yes think again and then take a final decision. Please note that holding on to a trade/stock is also a decision. Just buying or selling is not a decision. Probability holding may be the best decision than exiting a trade.
Invest – If you have money in debt / FDs / bank account you can invest in good stocks. You will get fundamentally strong stocks at a huge discount. Go ahead and do discount shopping.
Create spreads – This is a great way to hedge options and futures.
Only do HNI Iron Condors – Keep yourself safe and trade safer condors.

If you have not done my course where I have taught HNI Iron Condors you can contact me.

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Bad Days In Stock Markets Are The Best Days In Stock Markets

by Dilip Shaw Date: March 10, 2025

in Stock Markets

For most investors, a falling market is a bad market. They panic and exit.

The recent one is the pandemic period from 2020 to 2021. Yes but was that the only fall?

What about:

- - - The Dot Com Bubble of 2000
    - The Real Estate Bubble of 2008
    - The pandemic period of 2020
  History is full of such huge crashes. But the markets rebounded strongly after a crash. Still, people do not learn from others’ mistakes.
  
  Agreed, in 2000, the penetration of the Internet was low, so it was difficult to know what to do in a crash. But by 2008, almost every investor had a laptop or desktop with an Internet connection at home or in the office.
  
  The Internet and YouTube were not as big as they are today (2025), but still with some effort one could easily find out what ought to be done and what not to be done.
  
  Still, investors made mistakes. Count me in J. Had I held on to those stocks my profit would have been more than 10 lakhs on 50k invested. Unfortunately, I got panicked and took out 7k from the markets – thus losing 43k in the process.
  
  But what about the crash we are facing today? It is just about -13.70% down from its recent peak on 27-Sep-2024.
  
  On 27-Sep-2024 the closing price of NSE was 26178. Today while writing this post – it is at 22589. This is -13.70% down. And you know what – this last five straight months of decline for Nifty is the worst losing streak since 1996.
  
  And here are some headlines that I am reading on investors’ behaviour:
  
  Foreign investors are pulling money out of Indian stocks
  
  Investors pull out of US equity funds for a second successive week
  
  FPIs pull out Rs 24,753 crore from equities in the first week of March
  
  You may think FIIs are pulling out therefore Indian retail investors are also pulling out. The fact is they were doing the same in 2000, 2008 and 2020. And they will come back again soon if not very soon.

Those who will keep patience now will end up making money and those who exit in panic will repent.

So during these times, it’s always recommended to stay invested and if you have money to invest then invest in good quality stocks.

To Conclude:

A stock market crash is an opportunity to buy not an opportunity to sell.
Stay invested if you cannot afford to buy more.
Bad Days in Stock Markets are the Best Days in Stock Markets.

If you want to do my Conservative Options Course you can write to me at dilip@theoptioncourse.com.

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Do Not Lose Patience When The Stock Markets Are Falling For A Long Time

by Dilip Shaw Date: February 23, 2025

in Investments

Date of post: 23-Feb-2025

The markets have been falling for six months now. I am sure many investors who bought stocks when the markets were at their peak (Aug-Sep 2024) must be regretting their decision.

But here is where the stock markets test your patience.

If you lose patience and sell stocks at a loss now, you may do more damage than staying invested.

This phase will come and go but once you take a loss the recovery can be even more painful.

My advice is to stay invested if you do not need the money. If you need then exit from the stock which is making a profit even if small, or the one which is losing the least among all the stocks in your demat account.

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What To Trade When The Union Budget Is Near

by Dilip Shaw Date: January 28, 2025

in Stock Markets

What Should You Trade When The Union Budget Is Near?

The financial budget day is almost here. It will be presented on Saturday – February 1, 2025, at 11 a.m.

Markets are closed on Saturday but on Budget Day 2025, the stock market will be open for trading from 9:15 AM – 3:30 PM.

Q) Should you trade on Budget Day?

Ans) Of course not if you are averse to volatility, but if you are willing to take risk, trade Intraday only.

Q) What should you trade on Budget Day?

Ans) Stock markets will be very volatile on that day. Every stock, index and commodity will move randomly. No technicals or even logic will work. No kind of prediction will work. So here are a few things you can do:

1. Equity – If a fundamentally strong stock falls due to some budget news, do not worry the fall is temporary. You can buy the stock.

2. Derivatives – DO NOT SELL options on that day even if you are an expert. Just buy options for the risk you are willing to take. As far as the trend is concerned go for the current trend – do not take a counter trade. Trade one lot only.

If you want to trade futures, trade with a single lot only. You can keep a profit target of 100 points and stop loss of 50 points if trading in Nifty. If trading Banknifty then keep a profit target of 500 points and stop loss of 250 points. Set both profit and loss in the system. This broker allows keeping both the targets (profit and loss) in the system. This is called OCO (One Cancels the Other) trade. If the profit is achieved – the system will automatically cancel the stop-loss trade and vice versa. Click here to open an account – it is free to open an account.

Once the trade is live do not look at the trade as either profit or loss will be hit and you will know anyway so why panic unnecessarily?

The max profit in Nifty will be 75 * 100 = 7500, and
The max loss will be 75 * 50 = 3750.

The max profit in Bank Nifty will be 15 * 500 = 7500, and
The max loss will be 15 * 250 = 3750.

Take the trade only if you are comfortable with the max loss. Otherwise do not trade. If you want to keep a smaller stop loss it is not recommended as on a volatile day a small stop loss is likely to be hit.

Whether you are comfortable with the profit or not does not matter – your focus should be on the loss, not the profit.

Q) What will happen to INDIA VIX?

Ans) INDIA VIX will keep increasing and may go up to 22-25 on the Budget Day. Then from the next day onwards, it will keep decreasing. Even though INDIA VIX is inversely proportional to Nifty – on times like these this does not apply. What happens is unusual trading starts when the budget comes near leading to an increase in INDIA VIX. Once the budget is over these panic / speculative trades start decreasing bringing down INDIA VIX.

So yes, INDIA VIX will increase, but you should think about your money. As written earlier, either avoid trading near the budget days (from 3 days before and after the budget) or trade with one lot only. As far as equity buying is concerned, it has nothing to do with INDIA VIX.

Q) Should you constantly listen to the budget and take trades accordingly?

Ans) You will not win a million dollars if you do this. For money that will not make or break your life, it is not worth wasting time listening to the budget and taking action. You can always read the budget and its implications on the economy and business later in the day.

Of course, after reading the budget if you feel certain sectors may benefit you can buy stocks of companies that may benefit from the budget.

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India VIX Is Increasing

by Dilip Shaw Date: January 23, 2025

in Newsletters

P.S.: This is a copy of the email sent to my subscribers on Thursday, 23-Jan-2025. If you want to receive my emails, please register your email using the form above.

India VIX for some strange reason is increasing. This is good for option sellers – you will get a good premium.

At the time of writing this email India VIX was:
16.84
It is +0.062 or up by 0.37% since last close.

You can see real-time India VIX here:
https://www.google.com/search?q=india+vix+today

The reasons why India VIX is increasing could be due to the elections in Delhi on Wednesday, 5 February 2025.

Usually, state elections do not affect market volatility much. But this is not the only factor.

Donald Trump becoming US President and taking stringent actions on Day 1. His actions included everything from economics to border issues etc. This is a major reason for an increase in India VIX.

No one knows what lies ahead. So there is panic in the markets which has resulted in an increase in India VIX.
Trade with strict stop loss and hedge.

If you want to learn options strategies with proper planning and hedging you can do my paid course.

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