Date of Post: 04-Apr-2019
The general election will start from 11th April and end on 19th May 2019. The result day is 23rd May 2019.
This will happen to India VIX – a major factor that decides option premiums.
Here you can see India VIX here:
India VIX as on 04-Apr-2019, 2.07 pm:
From 11th April 2019 it will start rising and will be in range of 16-18 to 20-22 until 19th May 2019. Then from 20 to 23rd May 2019 it will keep rising and may cross 22-25. After 23rd May 2019 it will start to drop.
What will happen to Nifty?
It will get volatile especially from 19th May 19 until result is declared.
If BJP wins again it may surpass 12300-12500. If BJP loses then Nifty may fall to 10500.
Please trade with keeping the above in mind.
Update: Apr 8, 2019
I had written that India VIX will keep increasing until General Elections are over, then drop. However it’s getting faster than what I wrote.
Today itself it crossed 20. Here is a screen shot:
So my advice to all directional traders is to trade very cautiously. Nifty will get very volatile and may change direction at drop of a hat which may hit your stop loss much often.
For non-directional traders these things are not a concern. They are not bothered by which direction Nifty goes yet they make money. So the volatility increase may not affect your trades much. But make sure to hedge your trades.
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