This bull market is not showing any decline at all. It is getting frustrating now. I think GST has a big role to play.
Current position Nifty as on 13-07-2017 at 11.22 am:
Last six months graph of Nifty:
India VIX also hovering from 10-12.
So what are option traders trading?
The answer lies in trading volume or most active options open interest. This information can be obtained from the NSE site here.
According to today’s data as of 11 am:
Highest open interest at Call Options (most active option):
OPTIDX NIFTY 27JUL2017 CE 10000: 41,71,575
Highest open interest at Put Options (most active option):
OPTIDX NIFTY 27JUL2017 PE 9600: 68,13,525
Highest Open Interest means both option buyers and sellers are doing the most trading in these 2 strikes.
What do you infer with the Highest Open Interest?
You see open interest only tells where most people are trading. But for every buyer there is a seller.
So here the most speculative trading is going on. 50% of them are buyers and 50% of them are sellers.
Now which side will you take? That is the problem with open interest.
Lot of traders see daily open interest and trade there. Obviously 50% become buyers rest become sellers,.
50% of them make a profit, 50% make a loss.
Here is where it can create a confusion. You can’t flip a coin and become seller or buyer right?
Open interest will give you data of where most traders are trading but it never reveals what is going on in their minds. So there is not much to do with open interest. Just trade conservatively without being biased for any direction and keep making profits consistently. Though conservative trades make small profits – but a profit is a profit not a loss. Even a small profit is better than a small loss for a big gain right?
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Dilip Shaw, Founder
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