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Indications High That A Steep Fall In Nifty May Not Come


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In August FIIs have invested huge money in India. Our country saw an inflow of more than USD $1.3 billion from listed foreign funds. Most of the money has gone into Passive Funds. If you do not know what a passive fund is, then in simple words it is Index Funds. An Index fund is which mimics the Indian markets. Most of them are highly invested in Stocks which constitute Nifty. What an Index Fund managers does is only invest in stocks which are part of Nifty 50. Here you can find the latest Nifty 50 stocks:
https://www.nseindia.com/live_market/dynaContent/live_watch/equities_stock_watch.htm

The ratio in these stocks investments may differ from fund to fund. This is the reason some Index funds mimic exact returns of Nifty, some beat it slightly and some lag behind the returns of Nifty. But mostly the returns of Index funds and Nifty is almost similar over an year.

Foreign investors do a lot of research to know what may happen to their money where they are investing. It is common sense that USD $1.3 billion is not coming from one fund or a person – it is a cumulative decision. Which means a lot of foreign financial experts feel strongly for Nifty and feel it will bring great results in next one year. Please understand that when experts invest a lot of money somewhere it is not for Intraday trading. They are very wise people, not short term players and greedy traders like Intraday traders. Their average investment horizon is for 1 year at least and they are very happy with even a 9% return in one year, unlike Intraday traders who want 10% return everyday and lose 10% everyday but still do not stop trading.

Let us hope what they have researched comes true as I know more than traders money a lot of money is invested in mutual funds by average income group Indians via Systematic Investment Plan (SIP) method mostly in Equity Mutual Funds, who do not have the time nor money to trade stock markets.

These people will benefit a lot. If you are a trader I suggest invest your money in liquid funds for a fixed return and ask collateral against it to trade derivatives or stock markets. I think most brokers allow collateral against mutual funds to trade Intraday Equity Cash, Options and Futures. I do not know whether collateral is given to trade Commodities as well, but if you know please do inform me. Please ask your broker not me if they give collateral against mutual funds, as I do not know about all brokers in India. There are hundreds of them so it is better you ask your broker.

If your broker does not allow collateral against mutual funds I know a broker who charge very less on trading as well as give great collateral against mutual funds. If interested please fill the form below. I will help and send you free basics links of options too to enhance your knowledge on options.

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Two important news are coming this week:

1. FED rate increase news, and
2. Bank of Japan policy meetings.

I think Bank of Japan policy meetings whatever is the news, it will not have much impact in markets the world over as Bank of Japan is not a big investor anywhere.

But yes if FED increases rates not small but big like 2%, then there is a likely fall in markets all over the world. I really do not think it will happen as experts all over the world are saying that FED will keep the rate unchanged. Even if it increases it will be at most 1% which will not have much impact.

Most important outcome of the FED meeting is what its chairman says after the meeting. Experts are waiting for Janet Yellen’s speech for clues on the timing of the central bank’s next interest rate increase.

So please do not worry about both the news.

I am sure a lot of traders will be buying the Long Strangle or Long Straddle today. I suggest please do not do it as a huge move is not expected.

Even if you want to trade then why not trade with a hedge? This is the reason I offer a course where you learn how to hedge in the correct way. When you know your max loss will not exceed 2% you will kick fear out of your system and trade peacefully. But the decision is entirely yours as it is your money not mine.

Thank You.

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About the author: I started trading stock markets since 2007. However my first 3 years were losses. Then I dedicated almost 1 year on studying, researching, paper trading options and learned a lot in that time. Since 2011 I am trading Nifty options profitably. Call me if you need any help trading options on 9051143004.

{ 2 comments… add one }
  • Nabajit September 21, 2016, 9:15 am

    Your interpretation may not be correct – most of domestic investment are in the Arbitrage MF & not in equity MF. FII invested long term at @ 60 Dollar in rupee value. FII should not be trusted as they can liquidate it in 10 minutes of their invested money.

    • Dilip Shaw September 21, 2016, 4:40 pm

      I agree but they have a long term view on average and Indian institutional investors have a short term view on average that is the difference.

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