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US Job Data Will Decide Whether FED Hikes Rate Or Not

US Jobs data is expected to be out today. India time I think we will know by 10 pm or 11 pm tonight. Whenever something happens in the US markets the whole world markets watches. India is no exception. But I have seen from my experience that at least in Asian stock markets Indian markets are the least affected. Rest fall or rise by 3% or more whereas Nifty will fall or rise by 1% or 2% that’s all. Nifty is more volatile on news that effects India not any other country including Us. In view of the above we can conclude that Nifty is much more stable than the other markets at least in Asia.

Those who have done my course know that for us stability is more important than anything else including direction of Nifty. In fact we are least bothered about the direction of Nifty. The more stable and calm Nifty is the more money we make. No doubts our strategy makes money 80% of the times or 8 out of 10 trades will make money. What more do we want?

For most of us 3% a month is more than enough. However some traders like Ravi are doing extremely well after doing my course, but frankly I am least bothered. Living a happy and peaceful life matters more to me than money itself. Most of the human race runs after money without knowing why. Hell even I was in that race for 3 years from 2007-2010 and lost little more than 7 lakhs which was my entire savings till that time. Then I understood that running a race without any meaning is not worth it. So I calmed down, acquired knowledge and became a very conservative trader. Results are good and I am happy. 🙂

Ravi please do not get me wrong I am not against you or excellent traders like you. It is just that I feel very comfortable growing my savings slowly and peacefully. But it is my choice. You are growing it pretty fast that’s your choice. Our choices are different as our needs are different too. So it does not matter how fast you are growing your wealth. We both are happy in our world that is all that matters – nothing else.

What I am trying to say is if you are making money fast from the stock markets there is nothing wrong in it but you should be making profits not making losses. Losing money just because you want to make money fast is wrong. It is better that you make money slowly than losing money in quest of making money fast.

If you have tried it for 2-3 years are losing money then there is no guarantee that in future you will start making money fast. You are trading the same way, and markets are behaving the same way, so you will lose money the same way. Why do you think it will change some day?

Becoming conservative trader has its own benefits. Agreed you will make money slowly but you will also live a peaceful life as your wealth will grow, not go down with time. Within 3 years the compounding effect will take place and the speed of growth of your wealth will become very fast. So fast that it will surprise you. But yes there is a ladder to reach there. You need to ride that ladder which will of course take time. But you have to start some day. This is your choice. I started climbing that ladder in 2011 and in 5 years I am just happy that I traveled the right path. There is no short cut to success. That’s one major reason I do not try any aggressive trading techniques as I do not want to lose what I have made till date. I do not take any trade without a hedge even if 100% assured of profits.

I have learned to control greed and happy that it is not controlling me I am controlling it. For example today morning someone whatsapped me and said give me Rs. 1000 discount on the course I will pay immediately. I replied Immediately NO and said the course fee is already discounted – it is worth Rs. 10,000 but you are getting for Rs. 5,000. No more discounts possible. He did not contact me neither will I contact him ever. The course + 1 year support on the course for Rs. 5,000 comes to Rs. 416.66 a month. Compare this to what you pay to your servant every month. So your servant gets paid more than me. What more discount do you want? It is not justified.

Ok on the final note – do keep an eye on news tonight and note down what are the results of US Jobs data. The house is estimating the number to come in around 1,60,000 and that is sure to increase the possibility for a rate hike. However still FED will not be in a hurry to hike the rates. Even if they increase it will be a gradual affair. So it will not have a major impact on our markets. Even VIX is a proof of this. In fact at the time of writing at 1.10 pm it is down by 1.65% currently at 13.12. This is a clear proof that our markets are not panicking as they expect that the impact on Monday due to this news will not bother Nifty much and its going to be stable. Still it is recommended that you read the news tomorrow to get an idea of what may happen on Monday.

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Nifty On a Roll US Job Data Disappoints
Nifty Looking Stable and VIX Dropped But Stable

About the author: I started trading stock markets since 2007. However my first 3 years were losses. Then I dedicated almost 1 year on studying, researching, paper trading options and learned a lot in that time. Since 2011 I am trading Nifty options profitably. Call me if you need any help trading options on 9051143004.

{ 4 comments… add one }
  • Roji September 2, 2016, 4:25 pm

    Hi Dilip,

    Greetings.. Been following your newsletters.

    Just a point – 5th Sep is a trading holiday so I suppose a Fed rate hike or cut today will probably not have an impact on our Nifty/Sensex when it reopens on Tuesday. Will it?


    • Dilip Shaw September 2, 2016, 5:53 pm

      Yes Roji did not see that but treat Tuesday as Monday. Rest remains same 🙂

  • Saurav September 2, 2016, 4:45 pm

    Hi Dilip,

    Just a soft reminder Monday stock market is closed for Ganesh Chaturthi. Enjoy extended weekend.

    With regards,

    • Dilip Shaw September 2, 2016, 5:54 pm

      Treat Tuesday as Monday. Rest remains same 🙂

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