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I usually refrain from advising my subscribers from taking any trade for short term as I am a firm believer of non-directional trade. But today I am making an exception. In fact sometimes when the markets are showing indications of good day to trade I will give you some advice which I feel is correct.
It is quite reasonable to understand that it will help people who have taken my course more than who have not. Still it will help everyone to some extent.
Greece Crisis is no small news. A big Euro country may or may not default. We do not know. As a trader I do not speculate. My only friend is Volatility and what may happen to Volatility. Its a guess, but I take a calculated guess.
VIX today (29-June-2015) is currently at 18.18 – a 15.36% increase over previous close. Options premium have exploded. 18.18 is well above average. It is great time for option sellers.
Now let us think like a trader. Tomorrow (Tuesday, 30-June-2015) some news is expected. Once the news is out I expect the volatility to drop. If not tomorrow, within a few days, say by next week it should try to come back to normal. Options premium will also drop benefiting the sellers. This is a great time to do Strategy 1 of my course. You are getting great premium, so you can also go slightly further than whats in the course as we only target a small profit and options premium is also more. So just be safe. Nothing big to worry if something goes wrong Strategy 2 is there. Nifty will not go that far in 60 days. 🙂
Two things may happen:
One,Euro countries will try their best to make sure Greece does not default as it may damage their economy. This is a 80% chance. If the news is good VIX will drop and Nifty will make a bounce back. BOTH will happen. If it does, get out from the strategy 1 as your profits will come very fast. There is no need to wait further.
Two, if Greece defaults then the strategy 1 may or may not hit the stop loss. Remember this time you are pretty far, so if it takes too much time to hit stop loss, you still end up making money. So no need to go to strategy 2. But if there is a small loss, strategy 2 is there to recoup losses. 🙂
Tell me what else can happen?
I hope you got an idea of how I think before I trade. If you become a disciplined trader – this is how you will start thinking. It helps over the long term.
Please remember to manage risk. Just because I have asked you to trade does NOT mean you take too much risk. Only trade with what you can manage.
For those who have not taken the course you can sell options and hedge them by buying further out of the money options. Do not do this on too many lots just because I have said. I cannot elaborate further as this article will come in public domain and will not justify people who have paid for the course.
My costumers who have already traded strategy 1 need not do anything. Just follow the rules. Increasing risk is not recommended. However if you have cash left to trade a few lots you can try making another Strategy 1 in 1 or 2 lots only.
Disclaimer: In this post I have suggest my newsletter subscribers and customers a good trade and a great time to trade according to my view and experience. If you are reading this after the Greece news is out PLEASE DO NOT TAKE THIS TRADE. VIX will change and we will have to try some other strategy. Please do your own research before trying any strategy. Stock markets investments are subject to markets risks so please trade with care. Trade with the amount you can manage well. Thanks.
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INCOME DISCLAIMER: Any references in this site of income made by the traders are given to me by them either through Email or WhatsApp as a Thank You message. However, every trade depends on the trader and his level of risk-taking capability, knowledge and experience. Moreover, stock market investments and trading are subject to market risks. Therefore there is no guarantee that everyone will achieve the same or similar results. My aim is to make you a better & disciplined trader with the stock trading and investing education and strategies you get from this website.
DISCLAIMER: I am NOT an Investment Adviser (IA). I am an Authorized Person (AP) of a Stock Broker. I do not give tips or advisory services by SMS, Email, WhatsApp or any other forms of social media. I strictly adhere to the laws of my country. I only offer education for free on finance, risk management & investments in stock markets through the articles on this website. You must consult an authorized Investment Adviser (IA) or do thorough research before investing in any stock or derivative using any strategy given on this website. I am not responsible for any investment decision you take after reading an article on this website. Click here to read the disclaimer in full.
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