I hope you know that there is a referendum (voting) in Greece this Sunday 5th of July 2015, on whether they want to remain in Euro or exit. If the country rejects the bailout then Greece becomes a defaulter and may have to exit the Euro. If accepts then it gets more into debt.
Both are bad for their economy.
However we cannot control Greece or whatever is happening there. What we can control is our trades.
So lets wait for the outcome and take our trades.
What Can You Trade?
Monday morning it will be clear what will happen to Greece and of course Nifty will also react to the news. If traders think its bad news, Nifty will fall and if they think its good, Nifty may rise. Both good for us. 🙂
People who have taken my course: I suggest keep some money for the directional trade of my course. If you do not have the cash no need to trade – we can wait for another opportunity. BUT PLEASE DO NO ADD any cash to your trading account just because I am saying this. There will be a lot of opportunities in future – you can wait for them – but please do not add any money. If you have spare cash left ONLY THEN go ahead and trade.
Remember in the directional trade we need a movement fast any direction – and I am quite sure after the news there will be some movement.
Eventually if movement comes, we can exit in profits in a few days and if not, be ready to exit with a small loss because our original plan is that this will be a quick and fast positional trade. Stick to the plan.
Since the returns in this trade is in the double digits I request you to keep the trade size small. Remember that Nifty may not move. So maximum you can stay is till this Friday, 10th of July 2015.
Even if Nifty does not move you can exit with a small profit or loss – if your Future direction is correct you should be in profit – and depending on the VIX you can be in profit even if you were wrong in your Future trade. Let luck play a small part in our trade – but we will make sure the trade is properly hedged so we are safe. Here we cannot let luck take over us.
Another trade that can be taken is the Long Strangle. However there is some risk here as both the call and the put options can lose money but since you are exiting in 5 days, not much should be lost. However if there is sudden rally, this trade will produce a fast profit very quickly.
Note for traders who have taken my course and are already in Strategy 1: You can take the Long Strangle if you do not have cash to trade the directional trade. Since not much money is required you can trade this in less number of lots.
Take you profits out at reasonable level. Do not wait till expiry. If the trade plan is to stay for the short term, then stay for the short term. Again, stick to the plan.
Hope these emails and articles are helping you. I thought just telling you the strategies are not enough, so I have started writing about the kind of trades that you can trade whenever a situation arrives.
If you are not my email subscriber please do subscribe. Lets make this a profitable journey for all of us. If you have any other idea please tell us in the comments section. Lets help each other.
UPDATE on 07-July-2015:
Greece referendum results of not accepting creditors loan and a possible exit from the Euro zone has not effected Nifty and it looks like investors have ignored the Grexit news. Nifty has not moved much. As traders we should accept the situation and wait for our exit plan.
Those who are in the long strangle should exit the trade by 3.15 pm, Friday 10-July-2015, at any cost. Weekends will eat more premium so we cannot leave that open in the hope something will happen in the weekend. Just stick to the trade plan and cut short the losses. On the other hand we still have time till Friday.
I will update this on Friday. In between if you make a profit please exit the trade.
That is the reason why I like the non-directional trade. It brings profit almost every month. Only if there is a fast and strong trend one side it loses a small limited money. And you feel very safe with it.
Please not that a trade may not be perfect – but the plan and the execution should be perfect.
Update on 08-July-2015:
It is just 5 days since we initiated this trade. Nifty has fallen almost 2% today and VIX increased by 9.07% and closed at 17.79. Since VIX increased it should make the directional as well as the long strangle profitable. We can book profits today in the directional trade of my course or the long strangle whichever you had taken. For full update please read this article – book your profits.
Disclaimer: I am trying to help you to trade better. Still stock market investments are subject to market risks. Please do your own research before taking a trade.
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Dilip Shaw, Founder
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