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This is a copy of my email sent to my subscribers on Thursday, 02-Nov-2023.
In September 2023, the U.S. government’s debt was over $33.7 trillion. This includes debt held by the public and debt held by federal trust funds and other government accounts.
So what is the problem?
Because the federal debt is $33.7 trillion, just a 1 per cent increase in yields adds $337 billion to the annual cost of servicing the debt over time, as more of the debt is rolled over at higher interest rates. That adds to the Biden administration’s already large deficits so that higher interest costs grow the debt even faster. The Treasury is already spending an annualized $1 trillion to service the debt.
Why am I informing you this?
Because if the US sneezes then the world will catch cold.
So should we panic? Yes and No.
The U.S. government has spent more money than it takes in every year since 2001. This is the problem. For the last 21 years, it has been buying debt and spending money on social welfare schemes and running the country.
It does not look like Biden is at all worried.
What may happen?
Both debt and equity markets may fall.
But the US is sitting on a great advantage.
All its debt is in US dollars. The US is the only country in the world which can print money and buy stuff or pay salaries without creating a situation like Sri Lanka.
If you do not know Sri Lankan government started printing money to overcome monetary problems. In May 2023, Sri Lanka began printing money to promote business by pumping artificial rupee reserves into banks. However, this resulted in currency depreciation and exacerbated volatility. Things became so costly that there were no buyers.
Fortunately, the US can print money and yet will never see what Sri Lanka saw. Not sure why they are not doing and clearing all the debt.
If you are an economist reading this email, your valuable input will be welcomed.
I am sure the US markets know this and therefore we are not witnessing a great fall – but I just wanted to caution you.
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